AUD / USD trying to get back to parity

mprove the mood of investors in the bidding has supported the Australian currency, which is recovering from a nine-month low, reached on Monday. AUD / USD broke through above the ninety-ninth the figure and continued to move toward parity. However, while Ofer, located in the area of ​​$ 0.9965, the pair can not break above. As noted by one of the dealers, this level will allow testing of AUD / USD to develop an upward movement up to the mark of $ 1.0000, and potentially up to $ 1.0080. Strong interest in buying a pair of previously stored in a set minimum of $ 0.9780. The current rate of AUD / USD $ 0.9955.

Canadian currency against the dollar wins back the motion

During the auctions the dollar losing ground against the Canadian competitor. Dollar / canada falls below the second shape, and sets a new low for the session in the C $ 1.0167. At the moment the couple is trying to break through support, located in the C $ 1.0170. Testing of this level can open the way for the movement in the direction of C $ 1.0110. Dealers noted the increased interest in risk among investors, which positively affects the commodity currencies. Analysts believe that demand for higher-yielding assets is also associated with the end of the quarter. The current dollar / Canada C $ 1.0173.

Dollar / yen. Comments on the current situation

During the U.S. session, the dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen. A couple made ​​a dash from Y76.40 to the area above Y76.60, where consolidated at this time. Market participants noted reduced activity. The nearest resistance is a pair of runs on Y76.75/80, where is the maximum level of Y76.76 September 26. Further accumulation Offered seen in Y76.85/90. Execution stops at the break of the seventy-seventh of a shape can be a catalyst for further upward movement of the pair until Y77.30/35. Interest in buying a pair is stored in the field Y76.45/40, and then on Y76.20/10. Stronger demand for the pair seen in Y75.95/90. The current dollar / yen Y76.63.

The British Pound is trying to strengthen

British currency recovered against the dollar and euro. EUR / GBP corrected from the European session, the maximum set at stg0.8710, to the field of stg0.8680. According to one of the dealers, the nearest support a pair of runs at stg0.8675. Stops are located at the break. Their performance can be a catalyst for further decline in the pair until stg0.8640/35. The resistance of the pair is in the stg0.8710/15. Meanwhile, the pound / dollar trying to test the congestion area Offered at $ 1.5650, which represents a 76.4% correction of motion $ 1.5750/1.5330. Testing this level may open the way to move toward $ 1.5660/65. The current euro / pound stg0.8681.

Euro / dollar. comments dealers

EUR / USD corrected from earlier peak of the session. Dealers report that the upward movement of the pair was due to strong demand from the U.S. bank. At the moment the couple stays in the field of $ 1.3475, helped by a slight decrease in U.S. stocks. Market participants noted reduced activity. Interest in buying the euro / dollar remains in the $ 1.3440/45. According to one of the dealers, investors are awaiting details of a plan to support the euro zone. Current euro / dollar $ 1.3472.

Rabobank on the future of the Australian dollar

 Rabobank employees are skeptical of attempts by the Australian dollar to recover. Analyst of the bank, Jane Foley, said that the strengthening of the Aussie is temporary. In her view, weak data from China make investors worry that economic growth in Asia slowed. Additional pressure on the currency has a rapid increase in the dollar. She adds that the decline forecast for world economic growth in the short term, the Australian dollar will not go back to the area earlier highs, even if concerns about the debt crisis in the euro area is considerably weakened, while demand for U.S. currency falls. The current rate of AUD / USD $ 0.9800.

Euro / dollar. fundamental levels

FOREX: Euro / dollar. fundamental levels
$ 1.3550 - Ofer midsize / $ 1.3550/55 strikes options
$ 1.3530/35 - Ofer midsize / technical level of $ 1.3532 76.4% $ 1.3585/1.3360 motion correction
$ 1.3500 - Ofer average size for motion correction podhode/61.8% $ 1.3585/1.3360/strayk option
$ 1.3494 - the current euro / dollar
$ 1.3445/40 - moderate demand
$ 1.3410/00 - moderate demand
$ 1.3350 - moderate demand on the way / foot
                                                                                $ 1.3300 - moderate demand on the approach

Commerzbank about the prospects of the euro / yen

Euro / yen has set a maximum session of Y103.10, but then adjusted to Y102.80. According to one dealer, a pair of technical resistance lies in the Y103.37/70, where the line is a 5-day moving average. Further accumulation Offered seen on Y103.55/60. Gust of this region may pave the way for the movement towards Y103.90/00. Nevertheless, Commerzbank employees retain negative outlook for the euro / yen, and believe that in the long term can refer to a pair of Y100.00. Technical analyst, bank, Karen Jones, said that the breakthrough pair above Y106.00 little to relieve pressure on the single currency, but will not affect the tendency of couples to decrease. Current exchange rate euro / yen Y102.97.

News of the ECB a bit cheered investors

The emergence of market information that the ECB intends to resume buying covered bonds, a little cheered investors. Euro / dollar made ​​a leap to the area of ​​$ 1.3533, but has not yet been able to break above. The Australian dollar was also able to continue the roll against American rival and touch the mark of $ 0.9816. The nearest resistance AUD / USD now runs near $ 0.9835/40. Testing of this level can open the way for the movement toward $ 0.9860/65, where the rate of $ 0.9865 is the maximum of the Asian session. Currently, the euro / dollar stays near $ 1.3521. The current rate of AUD / USD $ 0.9818.

Commodity currencies will continue to take positions

The Australian currency during the auction wins back part of the movement against his American rival. AUD / USD managed to recover from a low of $ 0.9630 to $ 0.9775, where the couple was faced with an interest in sales and adjusted to 0.9750. However, Barclays Capital analysts believe that the commodity currencies remain under pressure, since the prospects for base and precious metals seem rather vague. The Bank's employees expect the AUD / USD will reach $ 0.94, and potentially $ 0.92. Dollar / Canada they see within the range of C $ 1.0675-1.08, and the New Zealand dollar - in $ 0.7440-0.7270. The current rate of AUD / USD $ 0.9744.

Euro / dollar can continue to fall

EUR / USD broke above the thirty-fifth figure and slumped to the resistance area, located at $ 1.3520/30. According to one dealer, among potential sellers pair spotted Asian sovereign accounts. Market participants noted reduced activity. However, analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman believed that in the short term antiriskovye mood to escalate. They doubt that in the coming weeks, European politicians will take decisive action. They note that the euro / dollar continues to decline. BBH staff added that the breakthrough euro / dollar below $ 1.3380 will open road movement in the direction of $ 1.30. Current euro / dollar $ 1.3507.

Debt dreadful and terrible

Nobody thought that the European debt crisis and the problems associated with public debt in the U.S. could undermine the foundation of economic confidence. But that is exactly what happened. Moreover, frustrated consumers and investors lost confidence, make this process self-fulfilling prophecy: their worst fears come true about the cooling economy. Falling consumer confidence indexes in Europe and North America indicates that the destructive process is already running. We now have access to daily updates of the index of economic confidence in the U.S. Gallup Index, which traces the changes in trust over time. During the period from the first week of July and first week of August - just as American politicians so scared of the fact that they can not agree on the limit of public debt and bring upon U.S. technical default - meaning Gallup Index deteriorated. The possibility of default theme surfaced in the news every day. But then came August 2, default has not occurred, but three days later, on Friday, agency Standard & Poor's downgraded the rating on long-term U.S. bonds from AAA to AA +. On Monday, the S & P 500 fell almost 7%. The fault of politicians, the country found itself in the humiliating position preddefoltnom that, obviously, put it on equal footing with European states, which are actually just on the brink of default. The European issue has become in the U.S.. On these topics, and is estimated public sentiment. Probability of default in the U.S. has affected a number of important strings: the pride of Americans, fear of losing world dominance and the fear of political anarchy.

Barclays Capital on the British pound

Euro / pound in European trading broke support, passing on stg0.8720. One dealer said that a good pair can provide the support area stg0.8710/00. However, it will break the downward movement of the euro / pound up to stg0.8685/80. Analysts at Barclays Capital believe that the British currency would continue to feel pressure. They note that the restoration of the pound / dollar from $ 1.5350-1.53 ​​area may come to nothing approaching the level of $ 1.5520 and above $ 1.5630. Bank employees believe that the couple can fall to $ 1.4960. At the moment the pound / dollar steady at $ 1.5425. The current euro / pound stg0.8725.

Dollar / Canada. Comments on the current situation

Against the backdrop of worsening sentiment antiriskovyh Canadian currency has weakened in the course of trading against American rival and kept in 11-month low. Additional pressure on the currency has had a decline in oil prices, which is the main export product of Canada. At auction in New York WTI crude oil for November delivery traded at $ 79.85 a barrel. Nevertheless, the Canadian dollar managed to win back part of the movement. According to one dealer, etou contributed to the strengthening of small stocks. Dollar / Canada corrected from highs of the session at C $ 1.0350 to the field of C $ 1.0260, where the couple and is held at the moment. According to one analyst, investor nervousness increased to maximum level, which is reflected in the volatility of the Canadian currency. The current dollar / Canada C $ 1.0265.

Commerzbank on the situation in the dollar / yen

During the American trade dollar / yen is getting closer to the historical minimum is selected and traded in Y76.16. However, employees Commerzbank sees the pair potential for recovery. According to technical analyst of the bank, Karen Jones, the couple is able to develop an upward movement until the 55-day moving average, which runs at Y77.50, and potentially to a minimum in mid-July Y78.45. Jones also does not exclude the probability of a scenario. In this case, the fall of the dollar / yen below the record low of Y75.94 can be a catalyst to further reduce the seventy-fifth figure, and then to Y73.74. The current dollar / yen Y76.17.

Euro / yen. comments dealers

Euro / yen in U.S. trading back above the one hundred and thirteenth figure in the field and kept Y103.20. The nearest resistance is a pair of runs in the Y103.40/45. Testing of this level can be a catalyst for upward movement until Y103.70/80, and potentially to the area Y104.35/40, where the players celebrate good Ofer. Interest in buying the euro / yen is felt in the Y102.60/50, and potentially to Y102.40/20, which is the minimum level of Y102.21 on September 2. Further, the demand for a couple seen at Y102.10/00, as well as in Y101.85/80. One dealer noted that the level of Y101.84 a 38.2% correction of the movement Y169.96/113.74. Current exchange rate euro / yen Y103.21.

Dollar / Canada continues to rise

Dollar / Canada gradually to a maximum selected Thursday in the C $ 1.0362 and is currently kept in the C $ 1.0335. As noted by one of the dealers, buyers among active pair spotted the American investment bank. A couple may encounter resistance in the C $ 1.0380. Analysts at Barclays Capital set up for Dollar / Canada rather optimistic. They believe that the long-term couple is able to develop the upward movement of up to C $ 1.0675. They report that the top weekly Ichimoku cloud passes at C $ 1.0260. Employees of the bank added that the closing date above this level last time was about two years ago. In their view, the region of parity will be able to pair a solid support. The current dollar / Canada C $ 1.0338.

Key options expiring today

Key options expiring today at 13.00 Moscow time:
Euro / dollar: $ 1.3300, $ 1.3500, $ 1.3850
Dollar / yen: Y75.00, Y76.00, Y77.00, Y78.30
Pound / dollar: $ 1.5650, $ 1.5720
Euro / Dollar: Chf1.2150, Chf1.2300
Australian dollar: $ 1.0000
Avstr.dollar / Canada: C $ 1.0300

Pound / dollar. Comments on the current situation

Pound / dollar during the European trading tries to recover, but dealers report that the level of $ 1.5459 a 76.4% correction of the downward movement of $ 1.5500 to $ 1.5326, and believe that this area will provide a pair of strong resistance. At the moment the couple settled in the area of ​​$ 1.5455. However, testing of $ 1.5460 will open the way for the movement in the direction of the fifty-fifth figure. Ofer located in the $ 1.5485/05. Market participants note that the pullback from a high of $ 1.5459 may signal a new wave of decline. The current rate of the pound / dollar $ 1.5455.

Wells Fargo: доллар продолжит укрепляться

Euro / dollar stays near $ 1.3450 ahead of the London close. Activation of the bears can be expected to approach the thirty-fifth figure. Stops are located at the break. According to one dealer, the attention of market participants remain focused on U.S. stocks, where the Dow suffered losses of 360 points. Wells Fargo employees believe that the current economic instability in the short term, in a winning position will be the dollar and Japanese yen. They add that only decisive action by central banks can make a difference. Current euro / dollar $ 1.3442.

Euro surged higher against the article in the FT

Correction of the euro after a failed test of resistance near the thirty-fifth figure was cut short near $ 1.3450/40, after which the Bulls have moved to the active counter-attack, using the publication of an article in the Financial Times, which stated that the EU plans to accelerate the process of recapitalizing the banks of sixteen, whose financial status is concerned . Euro for a couple of minutes was able to get to fresh highs session at around $ 1.3530, but Ofer, posted up to $ 1.3535, kept the pair from the development of the movement and after a second attack did not bring results, the activity of buyers has declined. Dealers noted that news, of course, can be regarded as positive for the euro, but their effect is limited: the euro / dollar is now once again came under pressure and at this moment is held at around $ 1.3475. Some consolidation in the near future should not be ruled out, but the Bears are aimed at testing support at around $ 1.34 and its steady breakthrough opens the way towards further reduction of $ 1.30.

Societe Generale on the prospects of the euro / yen

Euro / yen has set a new high for the European session at Y103.42, from which are corrected in the field of Y103.28. According to one of the dealers, Ofer seen in the Asian session high of Y103.45. Break above this level may open the way for upward movement until Y103.70/80, where the line is a 5-day moving average. According to analysts of Societe Generale, the resistance, taking place in the Y103.90-104.05, do not miss the euro / yen higher. They add that in the short term is expected to fall to a minimum pair in June 2001 at Y99.85. Current exchange rate euro / yen Y103.30.

AUD / USD. comments dealers

Australian dollar suffers second straight day heavy losses, crashing against American rival by more than 600 points. First, AUD / USD broke through key support located in the August low of $ 0.9980, and then reached a minimum of six months following the ninety-eighth figure. Execution stops at the break of $ 0.9750 allowed the pair to touch a mark of $ 0.9735, but then rolled back to a couple of ninety-eight shape. In the case of break of $ 0.9735, the pair will be able to develop a downward movement of up to $ 0.9710/00, where the rate of $ 0.9706 is a minimum of 16 March. The current rate of AUD / USD $ 0.9791.

Rabobank on the situation of the British currency

British currency during the European session is traded on the minor note against the dollar. Couple established a new low of $ 1.5398, but then adjusted to $ 1.5420/25, where it holds at the moment. Interest in buying a pair of felt in the field of $ 1.5390. Stops are located at the break. Employees of Rabobank, meanwhile, noted that the British pound looks more attractive than the euro. In this connection, they expect to reduce the euro / pound to eighty-fifth the figure for three months, which will contribute to worsening of the debt crisis in the euro area. EUR / GBP is trading at stg0.8736. The current rate of the pound / dollar $ 1.5424.

Euro / dollar. comments dealers

The U.S. currency strengthened steadily throughout the day. Euro / dollar for the first time since January, fell below the thirty-fourth the figure and set a minimum session of 1.3385. As the market participants, including a pair of active sellers were seen real money account. However, the pair managed to recover to $ 1.3465 area. According to one dealer, this contributed to the elimination of short positions in a single currency, as well as appeared on the market rumors about a possible swap agreement between the Fed and central banks. The nearest resistance is a pair of runs in the field of $ 1.3500. Current euro / dollar $ 1.3453.

Morgan Stanley on the euro / dollar

Euro / dollar recovered from earlier reached a minimum in the European session, $ 1.3447 to $ 1.3480 area, but then began to speak in a downward movement and was in the area of ​​$ 1.3450. According to one dealer, the closest interest in buying a pair of felt in the region $ 1.3430/20. Morgan Stanley analysts say the level of $ 1.3435. They believe that testing it in the medium term could lead to a drop in the euro / dollar to $ 1.3250, and potentially to $ 1.30. At year-end forecast of Morgan Stanley for the pair is $ 1.30, in the first quarter of 2012 they expect to reduce the pair to $ 1.25. Current euro / dollar $ 1.3467.

Euro remains at the mercy of the bears

In the European single currency trading is dominated by the bears. EUR / USD broke below the thirty-fifth figure, and the execution stops at the break of $ 1.3495/90 caused a further fall in the pair to new lows for the session $ 1.3450. Pair tested support, located in the area of ​​$ 1.3465/60. Now a strong interest in buying the euro / dollar is felt in the area of ​​a minimum of $ 1.3428 set on 14 February. Losing ground against the euro and the yen, the pair fell below the one hundred and third figures and found at least in the European session Y102.61. Nearest support lies in the Y102.50/40, and potentially to Y102.10/00. Stops are located at the break. Euro / yen is kept at Y102.73. Current euro / dollar $ 1.3454

Commerzbank about the prospects of the dollar / franc

Strengthening U.S. currency across the spectrum of the market was reflected in the dollar / franc. A pair of sets a new five-month high and gradually selected for the ninety-first figure. Technical analyst, Commerzbank, Karen Jones, believes the pair will continue to strengthen. She notes that the 55-day moving average lies at Chf0.9103. Jones adds that the testing of this level can be a catalyst for further upward movement until Chf0.9340, and potentially up to ninety-fourth figure. The current dollar / franc Chf0.9088.

The single currency is trying to win back traffic

During the U.S. session, the single currency acts out part of the movement against the pound and the dollar. Euro / Pound broke above stg0.8750 and set a new maximum session stg0.87575. According to one dealer, the couple is able to develop an upward movement until stg0.8770/75. Stronger resistance lies in stg0.8785/90. Euro / dollar also recovered from lows reached earlier. Additional impetus to the pair gave an interest in buying part of one of German banks. Couple As a mark of $ 1.3675 and is trying to get to the region of the cluster Ofer, which runs at $ 1.3685/95. Currently, the euro / dollar steady at $ 1.3663. The current euro / pound stg0.8750.

Commodity currencies lose their appeal

During the European trading commodity currencies against the dollar rent position, aided by worsening antiriskovyh sentiment among market participants. Execution stops at the break of $ 1.0230 allowed AUD / USD set a new low for the session of $ 1.0227. Interest in buying a pair of felt for $ 1.0190/80 and potentially even at $ 1.0150/45. The Canadian currency was also unable to win back the motion against the dollar, despite the fact that Canada's report on consumer prices briefly returned to the players hope that the central bank decides to raise interest rates sooner than expected. Dollar / Canada rests near the peak of the session in the C $ 0.9955. The current rate of AUD / USD $ 1.0238.

ZKB on the situation in the euro / franc

In European trading the euro / franc consolidated within a fairly narrow range and is traded on Chf1.2220. ZKB analysts doubt that the Swiss National Bank decides to raise the minimum rate of the euro / franc. The reason is the growing concern about the debt situation in the euro area. They report that the aggravation of the crisis can be costly for SNB. Employees of the bank, adding that the mere appearance of rumors that the SNB may raise the minimum rate of the euro / franc to the mark of 1.25, allowed the pair to settle above the twenty-second figures. They note that the market participants themselves did all the work for SNB - for more bank and could not dream. The current euro / franc Chf1.2213.

Comments from the Committee of the Bank of England triggered the sale of the British currency

GBP / USD made ​​a jump of about thirty points after the publication of the minutes of the Bank of England and touched the mark of $ 1.5719, since most members of the committee voted to keep the amount of quantitative easing on the same level. But then the pair slipped into the field of eight minimum, helped by comments of committee members, suggesting the need for further quantitative easing. GBP / USD broke below the low of September 19 at $ 1.5632 and was in the range below $ 1.5620. Market participants have noted that attempts to restore the pair look quite sluggish. Pound / dollar stays near $ 1.5630. Interest in buying a pair is stored in the field of $ 1.5625/20, and then in the fifty-sixth figure. Strong support for the pair could provide $ 1.5585/80, where the rate of $ 1.5583 is a minimum of 12 January. In turn, the euro / pound strengthened to stg0.8742, but have not crept to resist passing on stg0.8745/50. The current rate of the pound / dollar $ 1.5627.

Citi on the future of the dollar / yen

Dollar / yen spends the first half of European trading within a narrow range. The nearest resistance is located a couple of Y76.60/70, and potentially to Y76.85/90. According to staff Citi, dollar / yen risk of falling back under pressure. They believe that the approaching end of the year have a positive effect on demand for the yen from Japanese exporters. Nevertheless, analysts say, it is likely that the dollar / yen will move in a downward trend in just a few days or even hours before the end of this year. Interest in buying a pair of felt Y76.10/05. Massive feet seen at the break Y75.90. Stronger support lies in Y75.60/50. The current dollar / yen Y76.32.

Euro / dollar. Browse dealers

The euro / dollar formed a maximum of trading in New York at 1.3721. The same note was the peak of yesterday's trading day. Ended yesterday's session at 1.3688 U.S.. In today's Asian trading course formed the lows at 1.3586, that did not happen without the help of reports of a downgrade of Italy. Dealers reported higher activity on the sellers Euro from British clearing houses. On the side of buyers in the course of approach to the figure reported 1.3600 dealers buy the European currency by the U.S. hedge fund Black box (approx. Profinance.ru: hedzhfondy data usually do not reveal its investment strategy. Is that only in its broadest sense. More details not available to participants in the fund). After the fall of the figure of 1.3600 euro / dollar managed to recover to near 1.3650, but is resumed selling the euro from a major international makrofonda and downward movement again became topical. Also, a negative impact on the European currency has had a message that one of the major Chinese banks stopped trading currency swaps with their counterparts from Europe. At the moment, prices continue to remain in the area of ​​the figure 1.3600. EBS dealers report that the above indicated U.S. hedzhfond still interested in buying the euro on slides.

Why the collapse of the euro is equivalent to the collapse of the EU

In the comments of many important European politicians slip the idea that preserving the integrity of the euro and the European Union is, in general, the same thing. But some, commenting on recent developments cast doubt on this point. They note that the single market existed before the advent of the euro. They dream of how Germany and a handful of other countries form the "Eastern Euro", and France led a group of "western euro", and all this will not affect the integrity of the single market. They are wrong. In fact, such an alignment would mean the collapse of the euro area (by which I mean a situation where France, Germany and Italy will no longer be part of a single union with other countries, that is out in Greece from the euro area by this definition does not fall), which, respectively, lead to the collapse of the EU. The collapse of the EU will cost the continent more expensive than the collapse of the euro area. It is extremely imprudent to assume that the single market will survive only on the grounds that it existed before the advent of the euro (although, of course, any time he can still hold).

S & P has fallen off the euro in early trading in Asia

The decision by S & P credit rating downgrade of Italy from A + to A, while maintaining the negative outlook was a bolt from the sky during the grow from fairly quiet Asian session. A couple of minutes, absorbing the remnants of bids in the $ 1.3675/70, dived to fresh lows just above the thirty-sixth figure and now tries to use them to stabilize. Dealers noted that the news turned out to be consonant with the general negative attitude with regard to the single European currency, but they note that the reduced liquidity and execution stops led to the reaction to them may have turned out to be too strong. However, pressure on the pair is preserved, and they warn of the next series of stops below the figure, while the larger stop-oredrov expect after $ 1.3585/80.