The past week has been very volatile, all pairs oscillate in large bands, which was caused by a large number of external factors. The main event, which is so strongly influenced the dynamics at the beginning of the week was the decision reytingovoogo agency Standard & Poor's downgraded the credit rating of the U.S. level of AAA to AA + with a negative outlook. This has led to massive investment from the care of risky assets, thus, more like always suffered not the U.S. dollar and other currencies, primarily the euro, pound and commodity currencies.
On Monday, the fall in EUR / USD by more than 200 points on Tuesday and a pair stabilized in a fairly narrow range. This was due to the fact that major players were expecting the results of the Fed meeting, the results of which were announced in the evening. Nobody doubted that the rate remain unchanged, but the text "final instructions FOMC was not quite ordinary. Most importantly, it was noted that the terms of the conservation rates at current levels is "at least until mid-2013."
Members discussed the possibility of the Fed using a number of tools designed to stimulate the economy, and said "ready to use them as needed." The situation in the economy, the labor market and housing deteriorated and economic growth will slow down. On the one hand, these words were negative for the dollar, on the other hand - was widely expected that there will be a direct allusion to the third policy of quantitative easing QE3, but this did not happen. As a result, the EUR / USD sharply and flew up to 2 hours later rose nearly 2 figures, but still remained within the range.
On Wednesday, the players to "digest" a large amount of new information, but after dinner euro stone flew down, suddenly the initiator of this movement was the head of the Bank of England M. King. He noted that the main risk to the global economy comes from the Eurozone, which has faced the strongest debt crisis. And then "fuel to the fire," added the rumor that France after the U.S. may lose its highest rating of AAA. On Thursday, the EUR / USD showed mixed trends are very high, and, in a very wide range of more than 150 points on the background of mixed statistics from the U.S. and overall uncertainty in the markets.
On Friday, a range of trade continued, but with a slight upslope, the euro rose slightly against the rise in the stock markets. As a result, the week closed with a black candle, a long lower shadow, such as "Eskimo" (Fig. 1), which signals the reluctance of players to move up and inability to bear to overcome the situation. The pair remains within a large uplink "A-A '," but in fact there is already a few weeks between the boundaries of the 45th and 40th figures.
Lateral nature of trade confirms the Alligator indicator, all three lines that stretched in a horizontal line. Weekly stochastics also moves along the average level of 50, making a not too deep fluctuations in both directions. Only a break through "round figures" 1.4500 could lead to the revival of Up-trend, and the closest targets will be bull high of 1.4639 and below the annual high-level 1.4939, followed by psychological testing the boundaries of the 50th figure. Downward movement is very limited psychological mark of 1.4000 and trend line "A".
