UBS: the dollar will resume its rally

Currency strategists at UBS say that, while more recent positive economic indicators from the U.S. and hopes to make a decision to overcome the debt crisis at the EU summit endorsed a decline in demand for the dollar, which is also due to rebalancing of positions by speculators, the bulls should not expect significant to achieve. The bank sees a serious risk that European officials have once again disappointed investors that he would support another surge of pessimistic sentiment among investors, while improving the nature of the data from the U.S. makes less and less hope for a speedy QE3, and UBS warned that the euro / dollar end of the year may be in the $ 1.30 - $ 1.20, while the pound / dollar risk of shift in the range $ 1.40 - $ 1.50.

Barclays Capital recommends buying the dollar / yen

Dollar / Yen conducts European trading within a fairly narrow range and is trying to choose the direction of motion. As the dealers interested in buying a pair of felt in the area of ​​Y76.60, where this level is a minimum of 17 October. Small feet are seen at the break of Y76.50. Further, the demand for a couple saved in a minimum of 12 October Y76.30. The nearest resistance is the dollar / yen goes to Y76.90, and potentially to Y77.05/10. Larger Ofer located in Y77.45/50, which is the maximum level of Y77.48 on October 12. Meanwhile, Barclays Capital staff recommend buying a couple of dips to Y76.30/76.25, as expected, that the couple is able to develop movement until Y77.85/77.90. They believe that a breakthrough level of 77.90 will attract additional demand for the couple, which will allow the dollar / yen strengthened to the top of the cloud in the day Y78.75. The current dollar / yen Y76.75.

Societe Generale expects the fall of the euro / dollar

The single currency in European trading before recovering from the session reached a minimum of $ 1.3687 and returns above the thirty-seventh figure, driven by interest in buying the euro / dollar, which show Asian sovereign accounts. According to one of the dealers, despite the demand, the attempt to restore the pair remain relatively sluggish. Nevertheless, he adds, that a break above $ 1.3730 will ease the pressure on the euro / dollar. Market participants note that the foot placed on a break of $ 1.3680. According to analysts, Societe Generale, closer to the weekend should expect a new wave of sales of the single currency. In addition, in the longer term, they believe that the drop below $ 1.36 could be a catalyst for further downward movement of up to $ 1.31. The current euro / dollar $ 1.3706.

Commerzbank on the situation in the euro / dollar

Euro / dollar made ​​a futile attempt to break above $ 1.3730 and fell back below the thirty-seventh figure. Execution stops at the break of $ 1.3680 allowed the pair to establish at least the European session at $ 1.3668. Dealers say interest in buying a good pair at $ 1.3650/40. Stronger support for the euro / dollar can provide area $ 1.3625/20. Technical analyst, Commerzbank, Karen Jones, notes that fall below $ 1.3685 may indicate that in the short term, the euro / dollar break through support, located in the area of ​​$ 1.3627, and potentially try to test the recent low of $ 1.3145. The current euro / dollar $ 1.3683.

Euro is trying to win back part of the movement

The single currency is trying to win back part of the movement against its American rival, and is again above the thirty-seventh figure. Market participants note that the motion of the pair is anything but certain. As reported by the dealers, the nearest pair of resistance lies in the area of ​​$ 1.3720/30. Stops are located at the break. Their performance could open the way to move toward $ 1.3745/55, and potentially to $ 1.3800. Strong interest in buying the euro / dollar is felt in the area of ​​$ 1.3660/50. The feet seen on the break $ 1.3645. The current euro / dollar $ 1.3701.

Euro / yen is kept in the range

Euro / yen has settled down within a fairly narrow range of Y105.50. According to one of the dealers, the nearest support a pair of runs in the intraday low of Y105.25. Large bids seen at Y105.00/90, where the levels are maximums Y104.96/99 sentyabrya/10 27 October. Testing of this level can open the way for the movement towards Y104.50/45. Ofer is congestion in the area Y106.10/20. Stronger resistance can provide a pair of field Y106.55/60. The current rate of euro / yen Y105.46.

Dollar / yen. comments dealers

Restoring the dollar / yen from the previous session, made ​​the minimum came to naught on the approach to Y76.97. The pair has adjusted to the field of Y76.88, where he currently holds. Interest in buying a pair of felt in intraday low at Y76.67, and potentially to Y76.60/55, which is the minimum level of Y76.55 on October 12. Testing of this region can become a catalyst for further downward movement of up to Y76.30, with stops below. Resistance Dolar / Yen goes on Y77.20/30, larger Ofer located at Y77.50/60, where the levels are a maximum of 12 Y77.59/48 sentyabrya/12 October. The current dollar / yen Y76.86.

Euro / yen is trying to reduce losses

The single currency in the course of trading is trying to reduce the losses against the yen. Earlier, at least a couple of established European session of Y105.30. According to one dealer, the increase antiriskovyh market sentiment contributed to the report from the ECB that the private sector in providing financial assistance to needy countries of the euro area may threaten financial stability, especially if investors will be forced to incur losses. A member of the Mizuho Corporate, Neil Jones, adding that, in turn, the yen continued to strengthen after China report. So far, euro / yen has adjusted to the field of Y105.60. Strong interest in buying a pair is stored on Y105.00/90. The current rate of euro / yen Y105.59

Barclays Capital on the situation of the euro / dollar

Antiriskovye mood returned to the market and carry away a single currency to new lows for the session $ 1.3712, which also contributed to the execution stops at the break of $ 1.3720. Interest in buying the euro / dollar is felt in the area of ​​$ 1.3695/90, where levels are $ 1.3690/98 highs sentyabrya/10 28 October. Stronger demand for a couple seen at $ 1.3650/45. Employees of Barclays Capital believe that the new wave of concern players will actively selling the euro / dollar to rise. They also expect daily close below $ 1.3690. Analysts say the bank's key resistance levels at $ 1.3840, and potentially to $ 1.3940. According to them, just close the day above the 200-day moving average at $ 1.4070 would relieve pressure on the couple. The current euro / dollar $ 1.3728.

Dollar returns the location of investors

The U.S. dollar is trying to return the position of investors and in the course of trading reduces the loss against the single currency and the pound. As noted by one of the dealers, the negative impact on the mood of the players had a sharp drop in shares as well as the ECB comment on what the economic prospects of the euro area remain hazy. EUR / USD set a new low in European session below $ 1.3740, helped by execution stops at the break of $ 1.3750. Strengthened against the dollar and the British rival. The pair broke below the fifty-seventh figure and, breaking through support at $ 1.5690/85, touched of $ 1.5675. Interest in buying the pound / dollar remains near $ 1.5670/60. At the moment the couple stays at $ 1.5677. The current euro / dollar $ 1.3743.

Euro continues to attract players

The single currency again attracts players, helped by the strengthening of U.S. stocks. Euro / dollar again crept above the thirty-eighth figure, but as long as he can not go up to the maximum previously set at $ 1.3816. Stops are located at the break of $ 1.3825. Earlier, the dollar managed to win back part of the movement against the single currency. According to one dealer, the pressure on the euro has had a message that the loss of the private sector in the Greek bonds will be approximately 30-50% compared to your previous level of 21%. The single currency, however, found support in the $ 1.3750/55, from which resumed its strengthening against the dollar. As noted by dealers amid growing optimism interest in buying the euro is not quenched. Current euro / dollar $ 1.3807.

Pound has a chance to develop upward correction

While the British currency has adjusted to the maxima session declines continue to attract buying interest, and the mood is quite positive. Dealers noted that large bids now congregate in the range of $ 1.5715/00, and while the foot on the break of the intraday names $ 1.5695/90 pose a threat to the pound, a good buying interest last felt in the region of $ 1.5680. Currency strategists at Brown Brothers Harriman, commenting on the current situation in the pair, note that with a wrench above the $ 1.5700 Short-term technical outlook has improved pair. Fundamentals remain negative for the British currency, but the reduction of long positions in the dollar has a positive impact on the dynamics of the pair, and soon she may continue to grow to $ 1.5800 and $ 1.5950, although this movement is seen as the correction.

Nordea advises to buy EUR / GBP

EUR / GBP continues to consolidate after a spurt to fresh highs near stg0.8785, and, while the bulls are in no hurry to go on the offensive, dealers noted strong demand to remain robust in a recession. Large bids are now visible around stg0.8735/30 with small feet behind him, further orders are placed in the bull stg0.8705/00i stg0.8685, and the last loss of support will be more significant event in the context of changes in short-term prospects for the pair. However, such an event will mean the loss of potential for development of an upward trend, which, according to Nordea, has a euro / pound. The bank recommends buying a pair at current levels with a stop at stg0.8590 and the expectation of growth for stg0.9070.

Canadian dollar continues to rise

The Canadian currency has continued to attract investors, aided by growing optimism about the market that the European leaders will develop a plan to recapitalize domestic banks. Along with the "loonie" significantly strengthened as the Australian and New Zealand dollars. Additional impetus to trade currencies gave rise in oil prices. As noted by one of the dealers, the Canadian currency is able to achieve parity with the dollar. However, it is C $ 1.0150 area provides a couple of fairly solid support. Meanwhile, BMO Capital Markets analysts believe that at this time the Canadian dollar is overbought. The current dollar / Canada C $ 1.0160.

Barclays Capital on the prospects for the pound / dollar

GBP / USD continues to restore and, once above the fifty-seventh figure breaks resistance at $ 1.5710/20 located. Nevertheless, the couple can not stay in a new high of $ 1.5728 session, she pulls back to $ 1.5700. Analysts at Barclays Capital believe that the expected recovery of up to $ 1.60 should be, if the pound / dollar rate will settle above $ 1.5715. At the moment there is a pair of strong resistance in the $ 1.5745/50. Testing of this level can be a catalyst for the upward movement of up to $ 1.5765/70. The current rate of the pound / dollar $ 1.5718.

AUD / USD. comments dealers

The interest of investors to risk has allowed the Australian currency to reach parity with the dollar, and then settle down within a fairly narrow range of $ 1.0100/40. Resistance AUD / USD is situated in a previously established high of $ 1.0144, and potentially at $ 1.0170/75, where the rate of $ 1.0173 is a minimum of 14 September. Further good Ofer seen in the $ 1.0220/25. Interest in buying the Australian currency is stored in the $ 1.0065/60. Stronger demand for the AUD / USD 1.0005/00 Seen on $, where $ 1.0016/05 highs are 10 and 11 October. The current rate of AUD / USD $ 1.0110.

Commerzbank on the future of the euro / yen

After a futile attempt to break the level of Y105.80 EUR / JPY settled in the area of ​​Y105.60. However, analysts at Commerzbank fairly optimistic about the couple. They believe that in the short term couple is able to continue the upward movement and return to the field of Y107.65, where the line is the 55-day moving average. An official of the bank, Axel Rudolph, said that the only loss of support in the area Y102.47 could indicate a potential reduction of the pair. Current exchange rate euro / yen Y105.58.

BBH: AUD / USD could reach parity

The Australian dollar is trading on a positive note in European trading. AUD / USD has appreciated by more than a hundred points and set a two-week high of $ 0.9940. BBH staff noted that the support of the "Aussie" has a growing optimism of investors, as well as the stabilization of copper prices. They expect a further strengthening of the Australian currency against the U.S. competitor in the short term, expect to see as AUD / USD reaches parity, then at $ 1.0080 As, and potentially $ 1.02. BBH analysts added that the momentum of the pair can give a report on Australia's number of employed in September, if the data could be stronger than expected. The current rate of AUD / USD $ 0.9926.

The attractiveness of the dollar. Looking HSBC

Analysts HSBC decided to investigate the phenomenon of the popularity of the U.S. dollar as a currency of refuge compared to some of its competitors. Among the studied rates appeared Norwegian and the Swedish krona and Canadian dollar. Bank employees have left aside the Japanese yen and Swiss franc, in connection with the unrest of investors about a possible intervention in the currency specified by the central banks. As a result of this research analysts have concluded that the appeal of U.S. currency, to a greater extent due to the lack of alternatives to the players. For example, the Canadian dollar was too dependent on the mood of world markets, while the constraints of the Swedish and Norwegian kroner was marked by a lack of liquidity. At the moment the EUR / NOK is kept at 7.8069, EUR / SEK is trading at 9.1341 area. The current dollar / Canadian 1.0280.

The dollar is losing ground

The U.S. dollar during trading is losing ground across the entire spectrum of the market. Execution stops at the break of $ 1.5650 a pound enabled / set maximum dollar at $ 1.5659 session. According to one dealer, large enough Ofer located near $ 1.5670. Further, the pound / dollar may face intensified bears at $ 1.5685/90, and potentially at $ 1.5710/20. Market participants noted that the earlier interest in the sale of the British currency came from the system of accounts. The Australian dollar also reduces waste. AUD / USD broke above the ninety-ninth and was the figure of $ 0.9920, where he currently holds. Among the active buyers Aussies seen U.S. investment banks. The current rate of the pound / dollar $ 1.5646.

Euro / dollar. fundamental levels

Euro / dollar. fundamental levels
$ 1.3795/00 - large Ofer / $ 1.3800 a maximum of 21 September
$ 1.3750/60 - Ofer medium-sized
$ 1.3685/90 - large Ofer / $ 1.3690 a maximum of 28 September
$ 1.3660/65 - small Ofer
$ 1.3621 the current euro / dollar
$ 1.3560/50 - moderate demand
$ 1.3520/10 - small bids
$ 1.3465/60 - strong demand
                                                                                    $ 1.3450/40 - strong demand / $ 1.3446 at least  

                                                                                    October 10
                                                                                    $ 1.3410/00 - moderate demand

Dollar / yen. fundamental levels

Y77.30/35 - small Ofer
Y77.25/30 - Ofer average maximum razmera/Y77.27 October 3
Y77.10/15 - foot
Y76.95/00 - Ofer medium-sized
Y76.68 - the current dollar / yen
Y76.45/40 - small bids
Y76.25/20 - moderate demand
Y76.10 - moderate demand
Y75.95/90 - strong historical maximum spros/Y75.94 August 19

Rabobank prospects pounds

Rabobank Analysts point out the duality of the British currency, which during the European session, strengthened against the dollar and losing ground against the euro. They report that this situation contributes to a new wave of optimism among investors, due to another attempt to Merkel and Sarkozy to save the single currency. However, they added that the crisis of the euro area will continue to hang "Sword of Damocles" that within three months will allow the euro / pound to come to the mark stg0.85, while rather weak performance of UK macroeconomic data loss will reduce the dollar against the pound. At the moment the pound / dollar traded at $ 1.5640. The current euro / pound stg0.8669.

The days are numbered euro

Whether you like it or not, but the euro zone will fall apart, and the days are numbered euro. Euro came into existence more than 12 years ago, it seemed that his time has come. He was supposed to be a single currency for all European Union countries, which will significantly simplify the management of business and travel between Spain, Italy, France, Germany, Belgium and other countries. The ultimate goal of the creators of the euro was to improve the competitiveness of the EU countries about the U.S. and other countries. But the currency from the first day of life was one drawback. The first eleven participants completed the so-called Eurozone convergence criteria, ensuring the necessary levels of inflation, public deficits, debt and long-term rates. But the mechanism that would regulate these relationships and the criteria were not. There was no single fiscal policy for the group. This is the fundamental ugliness euros. You can not have one currency for a few politically independent countries with different cultures and different economic policies. Those wishing to join the single currency must sacrifice part of their sovereignty in favor of centralized government with power to legislate and dictate the countries a common fiscal and monetary policy. In the euro zone has never been a centralized authority, there is now. We need to create the United States of Europe, who will collect taxes, issue bonds and to countries in need of temporary assistance. Such a formation is to replace current arrangements confusing about who to help and whom to leave in the lurch. As long as this does not happen, problems remain in Greece only the tip of the iceberg. Behind it all lined up in other countries such as Portugal, Italy and Spain. The so-called PIGS countries for many years lived beyond their means and now it's time to pay the bills. PIGS can not defer payments on its bonds and thus endanger not only their own banks, but banks and financial institutions in other countries. Worse, the more powerful members of the euro area financial markets, together with Greece and forced her to take similar tough measures to consolidate and reduce the deficit, which hit in the first place to the public. Close demise euro does not go unnoticed by the foreign exchange market. This is evidenced by long-term downtrend. Do not be surprised if he continues his ignominious fall, because now the question is not whether a collapse Eurozone, and how soon it will happen.Irwin Kellner,Prepared Forexpf.ru Materials MarketWatch

Euro / dollar. comments dealers

Euro / dollar remains near highs session marked by the publication of data on U.S. labor market, but the bulls do not hurry to continue the offensive, given that on closer examination the nature of the report was not as positive as it seemed at first. Employment growth in the 45 000 was due to the termination of workers' strikes the telecommunications industry, without which new jobs in September, would have amounted to only 58 000 against the expected 60 000. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, remained at 9.1%, but unemployment U6 (figure takes into account people with part-time employees and unemployed people, not job seekers, who still want to work) has continued to grow and reached 16.5%, which was the maximum value from December 2010. Market participants seem to prefer to focus on employment growth, as well as the revision rate for the period from July to August, upwards of 99 000, but it is worth noting that, in general over the past six months, the average level of employment growth was 72 000, then as for the previous corresponding period average growth of new jobs was 161,000. Dealers noted that the initial burst of optimism in the stock market came to nothing, but in general the mood is pretty good. They note that in anticipation of output reduction of short positions in the euro / dollar may continue, especially since the recent bad news from Europe has not yet come, and for such a signal will be confident leap above the thirty-fifth figure, that will speak of the possibility of correction in the direction of $ 1.37.

RBC Capital Market on the prospects of the dollar / Canada

During the American trade dollar / Canada settled in the area of ​​C $ 1.0310. Chief technical analyst RBC Capital Market, George Davis, notes that the trend line break at C $ 1.0431 in the short term can be expected to further reduce vapors. He adds that the hourly close below C $ 1.0259 implies falling dollar / Canada to C $ 1.0221, and potentially to C $ 1.0147. According to Davis, the restoration of the pair to the upper boundary of the channel at C $ 1.0394, likely to attract investor interest to sell. The current dollar / Canada C $ 1.0318.

Fitch at the end of the day spoil the mood of the bulls in the euro

The lack of negative news from Europe has been successfully compensated by the rating agency Fitch, which under the curtain of the European session reduced the long-term credit rating of Spain's foreign and local currency AA + to AA-, while maintaining the negative outlook and revised its rating from AA-Italy to A + (also with a negative outlook) and lowered its short-term rating of F1 + to F1. As a result, the bulls, aiming to continue the offensive against the reduction of shorts before the weekend, were forced to retreat, and now the euro / dollar stays near $ 1.3397, continuing to feel the pressure. Bids close to $ 1.3380 a pair allowed to stabilize, but the tone is negative, and dealers say that the market reaction to the news shows that investors continue to react badly to what is happening in Europe. In their view, the possibility of upward correction in the short term remains, but it is unlikely to be significant and should be used to search for opportunities for the resumption of sales, given a favorable technical picture for the Bears, and the fact that the negative scenario in Europe is looking increasingly probable in the eyes of investors.

The front line in the currency markets

Recently, the talk of currency wars in the market are not uncommon. Will the investors hostage to military action? Currency markets were never boring place, but lately it's biggest asset class made their fans shudder of surprise more often than usual. Was plenty of turmoil: a dizzying fall of the former darlings of emerging-market currencies such as the Brazilian real, up the gauntlet thrown down in the face of investors Switzerland, where central bank intervention in the country spent the growth of the franc, parlayed the confidence of the financial world and its impeccable reputation. Currency traders say with bitter irony that now that Switzerland is always and in all to observe neutrality, declare war, it really badly. First, the term "currency war" in his latest reincarnation of the Minister of Finance of Brazil, used by Guido Mantega, speaking about the problems of competitiveness of their countries and other emerging markets. However, they, unlike the Bank of Switzerland, used guerrilla tactics rather fight the type of higher taxes on capital flows and covert intervention.

Barclays Capital sees potential for growth in the euro / franc

Despite persistent rumors that the Swiss National Bank intends to raise the minimum rate of the euro / franc to the mark of 1.30, coupled with difficulty given the upward movement. Currently, the euro / franc traded in Chf1.2370, approximately in the middle range Chf1.2333/1.2406. Technical analysts say Barclays Capital, which on Thursday closed a couple of days above the 200-day moving average for the first time since April 2011 that allows us to expect the further strengthening of the single currency against the franc. However, they add that the growth rate of the euro / franc will be rather slow. According to bank employees, the level will be able to pair Chf1.2225 solid support. They report that the closing date above $ Chf1.2341, which runs through the line 40-week moving average, couples will confirm the uptrend. The current euro / franc Chf1.2368.

The Canadian currency strengthened after the release of the report

Dollar / Canada during the European trading held in the fourth figure, however, publish a report on Canada's employment rates has allowed the national currency dramatically restored. According to a report in September, the number of employed increased by 60 900 vs. 15 000, in addition, the unemployment rate fell by 0.2% to 7.1%. Unexpectedly strong data support the interest of risk by investors, and therefore, the dollar / Canada fell from C $ 1.0388 to the field of C $ 1.0330, breaking through support at C $ 1.0350. Dips couple attracted the attention of market participants, which allowed her to play a little lost and revert to the field of C $ 1.0345. The current dollar / Canada C $ 1.0340.

Euro wins back part of the movement against the yen

The single currency in the course of trading is trying to gain a foothold, allowing the euro / yen break above one hundred and third figures. Earlier, the euro set against the yen in European trading session maximum Y103.14, from which the corrected field to 102.84. Interest in buying the remains of Y102.70/65, and potentially to Y102.10/00. Jerk above one hundred and third figures may open the way to move toward an intraday high of Y103.14, and then to Y103.20/25, where is the maximum level of Y103.23 third of October. Dealers noted that further development of the motion of a pair much depends on the performance report on U.S. employment outside the agricultural sector in September. Current exchange rate euro / yen Y103.05.

Euro / Pound. Comments on the current situation

During the European trading position of the single currency has put against the pound has fallen below the eighty-seventh figure, and has been in the stg 0.8645, where it consolidated some time. Nevertheless, the euro is currently trying to win back part of the movement against the British currency and is held in stg 0.8660. According to analysts of UBS, in euro / pound retained risks of falling. Among the key support levels, they note stg0.8593 and stg0.8530. Durable resistance may provide a couple levels and stg 0.8740 stg 0.8795. The current euro / pound stg 0.8656.

AUD / USD. comments dealers

The Australian dollar has left the area earlier peak of the European session at $ 0.9817 and was lower than ninety-eight shape. Nevertheless, as long as bids are located in the $ 0.9780 the pair do not allow to continue to fall. Then there is a demand for a couple of $ 0.9710/00. Earlier recovery AUD / USD has contributed an interest in buying a pair from exporters. Testing of $ 0.9825/30 can make the catalyst upward movement of up to $ 0.9875/80, where the dealers say the larger cluster Ofer, a level of $ 0.9879 is the maximum of 29 September. The current rate of AUD / USD $ 0.9784.

Dollar / yen continues to consolidate

Dollar / yen consolidated within a narrow range of Y76.65. As noted by one of the dealers, the nearest pair of resistance lies in Y76.70/75. Testing of this level can open the way for the movement toward Y76.80/85, where is the maximum level of Y76.84 the sixth of October. More Ofer seen on Y77.05/10. Stops are located at the break Y77.25, Y77.27 where the level is the maximum third of October. Interest in buying a pair is stored on Y76.55/50, and then in Y76.45/40. Stronger demand is felt at Y76.10. The current dollar / yen Y76.66.

European currencies on the rise after yesterday's statements by ECB

Fairly positive start to the European session, we are witnessing in European currencies. Pound / dollar has now crossed the Asian session highs and is trading above yesterday's highs of the day. Thus, despite very substantial losses yesterday, the pound found the strength to play them and even add in the price. Achievements euro look a little more modest. However, the European currency also traded now more expensive than in Asia, as well as more expensive than yesterday's high. Technically and pound and euro against the dollar seem able to develop upward correction. Euro / dollar back to the previous trading range 1.3380/1.3550 and entrenched in it. Therefore you should not exclude the possibility of testing the upper limit. Although ahead of key statistics - the report on the labor market in the U.S. in September.