Dollars go like hot cakes

If Monday for someone and turned out to be heavy, it was not for the buyers dollar. The U.S. currency enjoyed the influx of capital seeking refuge in troubled times. The financial press is replete with articles promising early Apocalypse, which leads to increased antiriskovyh moods and find the safest and most liquid assets. As expected, the euro / dollar continued its inglorious fall. The breakthrough level of 1.3400 on Friday, has already testified that the second most important currency in the world of serious problems. On Monday, the currency lost another 150 points, closing at 1.3201 compared to 1.3349 at the opening. This morning the euro continues to develop negative momentum and key support 1.3100/10 already in sight.

Euro / dollar is ready to form a "cross of death '

At the auction on Thursday, the euro reached an 8-month low against the dollar on the background of criticism from the future head of the ECB Mario Draghi at the situation in the banking sector in the region, as well as the inability of European finance ministers agreed to increase the size of the EFSF. The yen strengthened against all major currencies and the dollar has taken second place, while the SP 500 index closed at a minimum value since the beginning of the year. "The technical picture in the euro / dollar is deteriorating day by day, and in the near future we may see the emergence of bearish" death cross "when the 50-day moving average crosses under the 200-day" - says Mark McCormick, currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York. - "By the end, the couple may be in the range of $ 1.28."

Euro / dollar. fundamental levels

$ 1.3620 - Ofer medium-sized
$ 1.3605/10 - foot
$ 1.3690/00 - Ofer medium-sized
$ 1.3565/70 - foot
$ 1.3560/65 - Ofer medium-sized
$ 1.3535/50 - Ofer medium-sized
$ 1.3500 - a small Ofer
$ 1.3493 - the current euro / dollar
$ 1.3475/70 - moderate demand to $ 1.3475/stopy
$ 1.3450 - small bids
$ 1.3438 - the technical level of 76.4% 
                                                                                    $ 1.3415/00 - moderate demand
                                                                                    $ 1.3360 - at least September 26

The single currency remains in the grip of bears

The single currency once again faced with a wave of sales. According to one dealer, among active sellers of the euro / pound is again advocating a British clearing bank. A pair broke support, located on stg0.8650, and is now trying to test the area stg0.8640/30. Further interest in buying a pair of felt stg0.8600/595. Following the euro / pound, the session set new lows and the euro / dollar, sliding into the field of $ 1.3460 and the euro / yen, which was in Y103.35. Market participants say congestion bids on Y103.10/00. The breakthrough of this level can open the way to move towards Y102.45/40. The current euro / pound stg0.8637.

NZD / USD holds a minimum of six months

Message that the agency Standard & Poor's after Fitch downgraded the credit rating of New Zealand, the extremely negative impact on the national currency, which fell against the dollar to a six-month minimum. NZD / USD at $ 0.7636 touched on, which was the lowest since April first. During the week, the currency of New Zealand has lost 1.5% against U.S. competitors. Commerzbank staff noted that the New Zealand dollar in the short term, can continue to drop down to $ 0.75. They note that the additional pressure on the couple continue to instability of the economic situation in the world. The current rate of NZD / USD $ 0.7639.

The fate of the euro again in the hands of bureaucrats

Folk wisdom grants Monday special features. For example, Monday is called "hard day", when it is considered that it sets the tone for the entire week. Assuming that both of these assertions are true, then the whole week should be given challenging. How true these insinuations, we learn only on Friday. However, it is possible that for all risky assets and will be. Monday began with another wave of antiriskovyh sentiment, caused by the fall in stock markets in Asia. Japan's Nikkei 225 lost 2.26 per morning%, dropping to 8503.88. Markets in China, South Korea and Singapore are closed today, so low liquidity increases negative mood. Dealers said a reason for sales remained unchanged. He has not changed for many weeks. This anxiety associated with debt problems in Europe, particularly Greece. Rumor has it that on the weekend members of the ruling coalition in Germany were scattered comments about the fact that Greece is better to leave the euro area was good. Ostensibly this is for the benefit of itself, Greece. But not everyone shares this view, therefore, in the press every now and then there are publications about which misfortune bodes collapse of the euro area for the global economy.

Credit Suisse о будущем евро/доллара

Euro / dollar exchange rate at the fixing in London set a new low for the session at $ 1.3420, but then corrected to the area of ​​$ 1.3449. According to one dealer, this contributed to the elimination of short positions. Interest in buying a pair is stored in the field of $ 1.3400/15. Currency strategists at Credit Suisse believe that the pressure on the single currency will remain ahead of ECB meeting, scheduled for next Thursday. In addition, they retain negative outlook for the euro / dollar and expect it to fall to around $ 1.3050 in the next month. They added that the commitment rate easing monetary policy would exacerbate the situation euros. Current euro / dollar $ 1.3447.

Euro / dollar. Comments dealers and analysts

The single European currency began a new week on the minor note, and, while so far, she managed to find support in the form of bids in the $ 1.3310/00, the mood remains negative. Dealers noted that the recent interest in selling now there is near $ 1.3335, while larger Ofer located in the vicinity of $ 1.3350 and $ 1.3370 around with stops above. They believe that in the short term, the pair can expect some consolidation, but in general the predominant risk is further decline. Analysts Citigroup, meanwhile, point out that the loss of support in the area of ​​$ 1.3350 was a negative signal, and now under the gun turned out to support at $ 1.3150, while the euro could potentially reach a minimum in January is about $ 1.2860.

The BRIC countries will have a disservice to Europe

Many people expect that the developing world will contribute and ease the crisis by buying bonds that refuse to buy European investors and the state. European countries, one after another, are cut off from the bond market and hopefully looking at developing their neighbors. And why not? Reserve stocks of the BRIC countries account for more than 4000 billion dollars. This amount may cover a large part of the deficit. However, foreign investment, not only will not help Europe, but it will only complicate the situation. National policies, proved to be suffering from a distorted incentive system, so that the operations in the short term beneficial effects on individual countries, can seriously damage the whole of Europe. If most politicians will take similar measures, the overall financial position will deteriorate. It would seem that the countries that are struggling are struggling for self-financing by means of controlled interest rates, should rejoice in any large investor as a valuable source, regardless of its origin. However, foreign investors and domestic - is not the same thing. Any increase in foreign purchases of local government bonds denominated in euros, will have consequences far beyond the short-term financing. It also affects the trade.

BTMU on the situation of the single currency

Eurozone inflation report failed to support the single currency. Referring to the level of $ 1.3547, euro / dollar was faced with active sales, which dragged him to the area of ​​$ 1.3515. According to analysts at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, upward correction of the single currency coming to an end. They note that even a positive outcome of the German parliament vote on the plan EFSF can not have a significant impact on the mood of investors, as well as the economic prospects of the euro area. Bank employees are reminded that the plan to amend the EFSF was announced on July 21, after which the stock market began active sales. In general, a bank hold a pessimistic outlook for the euro area. Current euro / dollar $ 1.3524.

Investors attracted by the dollar again

During the American trade dollar regained attractiveness to investors and appreciated by the entire spectrum of the market. Execution stops at the break of $ 1.3430 has increased his euro / dollar to $ 1.3426. The British currency also losing ground against an American competitor and sets the minimum session at $ 1.5533. Interest in buying a pair remains at $ 1.5525/20, where the rate of $ 1.5527 is a minimum of 27 September, and potentially at $ 1.5500/1.5490. In the vulnerable position and is the Australian currency. AUD / USD broke below the ninety-seventh figure and touched the mark of $ 0.9682. The nearest support is a pair of $ 0.9630/20. Publication of report on U.S. business activity Chicago PMI slightly cheered the market participants, but the dollar continues to steadily grow. At the moment the pound / dollar stays near $ 1.5545. Current euro / dollar $ 1.3430.

Dollar: The worse the better

Despite the increased volatility, the dollar finished the week with a good result. He managed to gain a foothold against all its major competitors, except the British pound. Last week, the dollar was just lucky, because the movements are not worth any significant catalysts and the factors affecting investor sentiment. Let's see if it will not leave luck next week, when the fateful publications and market developments will not be lacking. In fact, the week promises to be so intense that it is not clear which of the key events will affect the mood of the market and shape the overall dynamics. On Friday the U.S. Labor Department publishes a report on the level of payroll employment outside of / agricultural sector, which traditionally attracts more attention. However, before it will be a lot of interesting things that could destabilize the market. Moreover, the fundamental fate dollar is likely to be determined before this glorious report.